Ethereum Technical Analysis 02/16/17

One of the most basic forms of technical analysis uses a series of moving averages. A large number of traders also use the 200 day (slow) moving average (MA/EMA/SMA/TEMA) to determine if price is in a bullish or bearish trend. We can add a 50 day (fast) moving average as well and look for confirmation in the shift of a trend with moving average crosses.

These 50/200 crosses are so widely used and respected, they even have special names. A 50 over 200 cross is considered extremely bullish and is known as the Golden Cross. A 200 over 50 cross is considered extremely bearish and is known as the Death Cross.

Daily ETH/BTC

On November 1st, a Death Cross occurred, signifying the beginning of a significant downtrend. Currently, in the next few days there is an opportunity for a Golden Cross, a strong bullish entry signal.

Daily ETH/USD

On November 23rd, a Death Cross occurred, signifying the beginning of a significant downtrend, albeit a later signal than that of $ETHBTC. A Golden Cross occurred on February 7th, a strong bullish entry signal.

Another type of moving average system is the Ichimoku Cloud, which uses four key indicators as entry signals. As long as the price remains above the cloud, sentiment remains bullish. When the Tenkan (T) is over the Kijun (K) sentiment is bullish. When the Lagging Span (LS) is above the cloud and above the price sentiment is bullish.

A bullish TK cross occurred on the daily timeframe this week, which is a bullish signal as well as long entry signal (based on $ETHBTC 1x Cloud Daily).

Daily ETH/BTC Doubled Cloud

Around January 18th, price entered the cloud and initiated a Kumo Edge to Edge trade. The larger the cloud, the bigger the expected move. The stop loss for these trades is always below the Kijun. Price may be extremely volatile while in the cloud but there is an expectation with a high degree of probability that price will reach for the opposite edge of the cloud.

Daily ETH/BTC Singled Cloud

Ichi Cloud Bullish Entry Signals include: price above cloud, bullish cloud, and over the past few days a bullish TK Cross, and lagging span is above price. The best entry on the Ichimoku cloud system is to always wait for the last signal to flip over to enter.

ETH/USD Ascending Triangle Breakout 

After 40 days of consolidation, resistance at $11.50 was broken. The measured target of the ascending triangle is ~$14.25.

ETH/USD 2x Cloud Daily

All cloud signals have been bullish since February 4th, except for a bullish cloud, which flipped bullish on February 12th. This was the best long entry based on this timeframe using these cloud settings.

ETH/USD 1x Cloud Daily

All cloud signals have been bullish since February 4th, except for a bullish cloud, which flipped bullish on February 9th. This was the best long entry based on this timeframe using these cloud settings.

4h ETH/BTC Pitchfork

Should the pitchfork be reliable, current target is 0.016-0.019 in the immediate future based on the pitchfork median line, which can be thought of as return to mean. A candle close below the blue quartile invalidates the pitchfork.

Conclusion

The technicals on $ETH have looked bullish for a few days now, on both four hour and daily timeframes. With an Adam & Eve double bottom wanting to complete and several cloud signals recently signaling a long entry.

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Josh Olszewicz

Bitcoin and altcoin trader.
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